Linux Supplement:

LINUX AT 10 - WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE?

As reported by Stephen Shankland, Linux has attained a rare distinction among operating systems: Through a combination of technology and culture, the Unix clone has given Microsoft serious worries.

Linux hasn't come close to writing Microsoft Windows' obituary, but in the 10 years since the operating system was born, it has carved out a growing position where other operating systems have fallen by the wayside or been relegated to niche status.

That success has stemmed from a variety of factors that came together at the right time, analysts and Linux community members say: a backlash against Microsoft, the growing power of Intel computers, the excitement of a band of programmers able to work together via the Internet, the flexibility of the operating system, and the pragmatic approach and folksy personality of creator Linus Torvalds.

While Linux has gained a foothold on the computers of every large server maker, technically respected operating systems such as BeOS, Amiga and OS/2 have faltered, and Apple's Mac OS and various versions of Unix largely have been consigned to smaller niche markets.

Programmers, dissatisfied with Windows and looking for a change, saw in Linux a way to make a difference, said Giga Information Group analyst Rob Enderle.

"It became a counterculture offering. Apple dropped out of that role and something had to fill it," Enderle said. "Part of what made it alternative was its open-source nature. It made them about as different from Windows as you could possibly get."

Over the years, Linux caught on with companies as well as volunteers. First came a raft of Linux companies such as now-leading Red Hat, Caldera International, SuSE and Turbolinux. Next came the support of companies such as Oracle that sold database software. Then the server makers arrived and began offering their own improvements, culminating in IBM's commitment to spend $1 billion on its own Linux programs.

"Linux is maturing faster than any operating system in history," said Dan Frye, director of IBM's Linux Technology Center and the one who three years ago this month began IBM's evaluation and eventual backing of Linux.

One strength of Linux--and one of the main reasons IBM likes it -- is that it can run on many different computer designs. That includes IBM's four major server lines as well as numerous specialty systems used for "embedded" systems such as handheld computers and network routers.

It didn't start that way. Torvalds initially designed Linux only for Intel's 386 processors. But at the same time that Microsoft was abandoning non-Intel chips such as the PowerPC, MIPS and Alpha, Linux redesigned so that chip-specific components were generally separate from most of the operating system's workings.

Amiga, BeOS, Mac OS, OS/2 and the various versions of Unix largely have been locked to a specific hardware platform.

"The Amiga guys, Apple guys and OS/2 guys all came from a hardware-centric" viewpoint, said McDonald Investments analyst Brent Williams. "Even though they were talented software guys, they were designed by hardware companies."

Linux also has accommodated growing corporate interest. "A majority of key players in Linux today are paid to work on Linux," Frye said.

Keeping developers entertained

One key reason for Linux's success is that its open nature meant that curious programmers could influence the operating system -- something not possible with proprietary alternatives.

"Developers hate using poor software," said Michael Tiemann, chief technology officer of Linux leader Red Hat. "Any software development model that gives you permission to make changes to the source code" lures programmers and leads them to create better software.

Linux technically refers to just the kernel, or core, of the operating system, but the term is used to include many higher-level components as well -- for example, the Xfree86 graphics system, the Glibc library of supporting software, and the GNOME and KDE user interfaces.

With all these packages to choose from, and nothing prohibiting developers from starting new projects, there's plenty of room for projects to keep programmers interested -- a key factor in ensuring the longevity of a software project.

"The developer community is like the middle class," Tiemann said. "If you don't have a good middle class, you're going to end up with a highly unstable nation-state."

And despite the large number of companies and individuals backing Linux, the software project has largely retained its cooperative nature. That's been key in avoiding Unix's fate of "fragmentation," in which several companies work independently on different versions.

"Most Unix is failing because it's tied to a single vendor; it varies a lot by vendor and because there was a lack of investment in it," said Alan Cox, second-in-command of Linux after Torvalds. "Each vendor duplicated the development, the costs went through the roof, and both compatibility and progress suffered."

In contrast, Linux is "about sharing, working together and building something where everyone gains," Cox said.

One long-touted advantage of open-source software, in which anyone may freely modify and redistribute a program, is that customers aren't beholden to the company that sold them the software.

"I can't imagine many customers...doing that, but it's a big safety net," said McDonald Investments' Williams. "If you buy a proprietary operating system and there's a bug in it, you probably have to wait four, five, six months for a patch to come out. If you've got the source code, you can hire somebody who knows about these things to fix it."

Added IBM's Frye: "One percent of customers really take advantage that the source code is there."

Tiemann gave a minor example of how well it can work: He found that the open-source Mozilla Web browser and e-mail program had a needlessly sluggish search method, so he wrote a patch, installed the modified version, and sent the results to the Mozilla team.

"Wow, the CTO of Red Hat still cuts code," came the surprised response from Mozilla.

Linux strong where competition is weak

Linux also attacked Microsoft and Unix where they had weaknesses. Microsoft is dominant in desktops, but competition is stronger in servers, where Linux is most widely used. And Linux was cheap, while Unix customers had to pay a premium.

Linux programmers didn't have to start from scratch to build this success. Linux plugged into the GNU's Not Unix (GNU) effort to clone Unix, adopting many of the design and utilities of Unix if not its exact software code. But the programmers did have to struggle for years without support from those who designed chips, network cards, and just about every other computer component that requires a software "driver" to work with an operating system.

"Early on, Linux developers wrote drivers without help from the hardware manufacturers," said Bryan Sparks, founder of Caldera and now chief executive of embedded Linux company Lineo. "Now that's flipped. Now the hardware peripheral manufacturers are writing drivers that support Linux themselves."

Sparks also praised Torvalds as a practical leader who didn't suffer from the arrogance of some others. "He was in the right place at the right time with the right personality," and thus the group that became Caldera decided to use Linux, not NetBSD or other alternatives.

Challenges remain

But other operating systems have risen and fallen, and Linux isn't guaranteed success. Many of the companies backing Linux have suffered or expired altogether in today's unforgiving financial environment, failing to convert Linux's popularity into corporate profits.

"It's easier to write a clone of Unix than to be in the lead and say, 'Where do we go from here?'" Sparks said.

IBM's Frye said Linux's biggest challenge is to increase the number of business software companies supporting the operating system.

And Microsoft, once trying to dig into the Unix server market at a more leisurely pace, now has a full-court press on Linux and the General Public License (GPL) that underlies it.

"Microsoft and others are moving quickly," Sparks said. "The fact is, (Microsoft has) $30 billion to spend and a whole bunch of engineers to put on the problem."

Still, Microsoft must worry, particularly because Linux is such a popular learning tool in schools.

"The trend is not good" for Microsoft, Enderle said. "More and more kids are coming out of school with a Linux bent. People doing open source are often at the top of their class -- similar to the people who drove Windows into the market a decade ago."