Features - Enterprise Data Insights:

HOTTEST HARD DRIVES
by Masha Zager

The hard disk drive is one of the great IT success stories. In 20 years, it has progressed from an IBM PC luxury add-on to an indispensable part of any computer, and finally to a component so inexpensive it can be upgraded on impulse. Capacity, performance and reliability all have improved dramatically as costs have fallen. And although one might think manufacturers have nowhere left to go, they continue to push the boundaries of hard drives' capabilities.

Most disk drives on the market today use either Advanced Technology Attachment (ATA) or Small Computer System Interface (SCSI) connections. ATA, which is slower but less expensive, is used mainly in desktop and mobile PCs, while SCSI, faster but more expensive, is used primarily in servers and high-end workstations. Another advantage of SCSI drives for servers is that, unlike ATA drives, they are hot-pluggable, which means they can be replaced while the computer is running.

State of the Art

The standard-size ATA drive included with a PC is now 40 gigabytes (GB), and disks as large as 200 GB are common. In terms of speed, 7200 RPM (rotations per minute) has become the industrywide norm. For the first time, in the third quarter of this year, more than 50 percent of ATA drives sold were 7200 RPM models, according to Darrin Bulik, technical marketing manager at drive manufacturer Western Digital.

Of course, performance depends on more than rotational speed, and there are differences among drives. Storage Review, an independent benchmarking group, lists the 200 GB Western Digital Caviar and the 180 GB IBM Ultrastar as the fastest ATA drives on the market, measured by I/O (input/output) per second.

According to Mark Geenen, president of the International Disk Drive Equipment and Materials Association (IDEMA), RPM could be increased even more if PC buses could handle higher data speeds. "The way the PC is constructed slows them down," he told NewsFactor.

High Speed, Reliability

SCSI drives are also in the 40 to 200 GB size range, but their standard speed is 10,000 RPM, significantly higher than the ATA standard, and 15,000-RPM drives have become more widely available. According to Storage Review, the 73 GB Seagate Cheetah and 147 GB Maxtor Atlas are the fastest SCSI models in terms of I/O per second. Based on these statistics, the fastest SCSI drive is about 37 percent faster than the fastest ATA drive.

According to both Bulik and Geenen, disk drive reliability has improved markedly over the years and is now uniformly high. Bulik explained that because the large OEMs to whom disk manufacturers sell their products use the same qualification tests, virtually all of the drives on the market are comparable in terms of reliability.

Bulik added that disk drive capacities also will continue to grow steadily beyond today's 200 GB limit -- and putting a terabyte of data on a PC hard drive is becoming a possibility.

Coming Attractions

But more important than capacity growth is the arrival of the serial ATA interface, which several vendors will begin shipping in the first quarter of 2003. Serial ATA will raise interface transfer rates to 150 megabytes per second from parallel ATA's 100 megabytes per second -- a 50 percent increase, which will be most noticeable in high-data-volume applications, such as video editing.

And because serial ATA is in its infancy, there is room for additional large increases in transfer rates. Parallel ATA, by contrast, has been in use for 10 years, and, according to Bulik, "You can only stretch it so far. [Serial ATA] starts the clock over again."

The most significant impact of serial ATA may be in the low-end server market, where SCSI drives predominate today. Server and workstation manufacturers are looking hard at serial ATA drives, whose capacity, performance and hot-pluggability will be adequate for many of their computer models at a fraction of SCSI drive prices.

According to Bulik, serial ATA drives will probably be installed in servers used for bulk data storage rather than those with heavy transactional loads. "It will be a while before we see serial ATA driving Wall Street," he told NewsFactor, "but for people who want a lot of capacity at a lower price than SCSI, it becomes an easy ROI to close."

Waiting for Upward Trends

At present, there is little demand for increasing the performance of ATA drives. As Geenen put it, "The fringe users could use 10,000 RPM, but for mere mortals, it's overkill." However, if manufacturers of servers, rather than of desktop computers, become the dominant force in the ATA market, they are expected to push for higher levels of performance. "As [the server] market becomes bigger," Bulik noted, "we may see some drive spec changes."

Another trend mentioned by both Bulik and Geenen is the growing popularity of external hard drives. As OEMs try to shrink the PC footprint, many models have room for only one disk drive. Users who need a second drive increasingly are turning to external drives with USB (universal serial bus) or 1394 (Firewire) interfaces, now that the speed of these interfaces has been raised.

The $40 Disk Drive

In the long run, Geenen said, if manufacturers can reduce their wholesale prices to less than $40, they could "potentially unlock a massive wave of demand." At that price, disk drives would become attractive to consumer electronics manufacturers for such devices as televisions and videocassette recorders, expanding the uses of those devices.

But it is a long drop from $70, the current wholesale price, to $40. "Most of the cost of the drive is materials," Geenen explained. "There's not a lot to play with." In addition, consolidation of the disk drive industry to five major players has reduced the competitive pressures that drove down prices so quickly in the past. "Everyone's a little bit careful about pressing on to completely redesign the disk drive," Geenan said.

But if manufacturers can manage to break the $40 barrier by driving down materials costs or finding new manufacturing efficiencies, the disk drive could become more ubiquitous than anyone has imagined. "This would be revolutionary rather than evolutionary," Geenan said. "It's fantastic if and when it happens."