THE Y2K PROBLEM - TAKING A TURN FOR THE BIZARRE
by Inderpal Bhandari, executive editor at large
I have come to a realization about the whole Y2K situation. Nobody really knows the extent of disruption that will occur come Jan. 1, 2000. That is the only explanation for the increasingly bizarre crop of concerns that are being voiced.
Last week, I hooked up with an old friend who works for a prominent software company. After we had caught up, he asked me what I thought would happen when the new millenium arrives. I told him that I was not terribly concerned about it, although a case could be made to avoid flying internationally, especially to a part of the world where air traffic control systems had not been upgraded in a while. He was oddly reassured to hear me say that. "I was debating whether I should take my money out of the bank". This from a guy who works for a technology company.
As you can well imagine, the perceived situation is much worse for those who know little or nothing about computers. A relative who works in human services called me recently. He had read a report in the local paper that had alarmed him. It laid out the following doomsday scenario. Russian computers fail on Jan. 1, 2000, disabling radar and other monitoring systems. Assume that the Russian missile defense system is programmed to react to a cyber attack, it being a safe bet that such an attack may precede a nuclear strike from a foe. When the computers fail, the missile defense system is fooled into thinking that a nuclear strike is imminent, and fires off a pre-emptive strike off its own, leading to all-out nuclear warfare.
And, so it goes on and on. The consultants are spinning their doomsday scenarios, some say to drum up business and similarly, numerous others are downplaying the effects, perhaps to limit expenditure on testing. The end result is a very confused and frightened populace.
After reading arguments offered by gurus of both camps, I have not come across any one argument that is compelling, that has the ring of simple truth. Consequently, I have concluded that no one really knows what will happen on Jan. 1, 2000. What the gurus tell us is simply their best (in some cases, educated) guess. It stands to reason that, unless this situation changes, the Y2K projections will get even more bizarre as the millennium approaches.
I have two suggestions to help alleviate this situation. Some time ago, Wall Street conducted a well-publicized Y2K preparedness test by setting the clocks of its computers forward to simulate the arrival of the new millennium. The tests were conducted on interdependent systems across organizational boundaries, and if memory serves, even across international boundaries. They found that their computers were well prepared and would suffer little or no effect. My first suggestion is that, if not already underway, more such tests be done for critical computer systems and the results publicized extensively. This will help us avoid the major pitfalls and alleviate the anxiety of the general populace.
Second, a world-wide task force be formed to address problems that do occur on Jan. 1, 2000. What is likely to happen is not that the world will be faced with the failure of critical computer systems with disastrous consequences but more that a very large number of minor problems occur, mainly in computer systems that are not involved in critical aspects of modern life and that have not been tested adequately. Cumulatively, these problems could indeed have a serious disruptive effect. The job of the task force members will be to troubleshoot these problems as quickly as possible. Jan 1 will not be a holiday for them. Instead, as a precautionary measure, everyone on the task force will show up at work to handle potential Y2K problems as well as to quash the bizarre stories that will no doubt occur about what is happening on that day.
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Inderpal Bhandari can be reached via http://www.virtualgold.com